{"id":11787,"date":"2025-05-29T17:03:34","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T20:03:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aniu.org.uy\/sin-categorizar\/climate-change-and-agriculture-a-warning-with-opportunities\/"},"modified":"2025-05-30T10:50:22","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T13:50:22","slug":"climate-change-and-agriculture-a-warning-with-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/news\/climate-change-and-agriculture-a-warning-with-opportunities\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change and agriculture: a warning with opportunities"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On May 27, the National Academy of Engineering of Uruguay (ANIU) inaugurated its series of <strong>talks on climate change<\/strong> with a virtual conference given by Dr. Walter E. Baethgen. <a href=\"https:\/\/people.climate.columbia.edu\/users\/profile\/walter-e-baethgen\"><strong>Dr. Walter E. Baethgen<\/strong><\/a>a senior researcher at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.columbia.edu\/\">Columbia Climate School<\/a> and acting director of the <a href=\"https:\/\/iri.columbia.edu\/\">International Research Institute for Climate and Society<\/a> (IRI) in New York.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->The event also featured remarks by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fing.edu.uy\/es\/node\/49928\"><strong>Dr. Rafael Terra<\/strong><\/a>climatologist and professor at the University of the Republic.<\/p>\n<div style=\"padding: 56.25% 0 0 0; position: relative;\"><iframe style=\"position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%;\" title=\"Climate Change Conference - Walter E. Baethgen, Ph.D.\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1088854844?badge=0&autopause=0&player_id=0&app_id=58479\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p><script src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/api\/player.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-walter.e-baethgen.pdf\">Presentation by Walter E. Baethgen, Ph.D.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/escenarios-climaticos-en-2-tipos-rafael-terra.pdf\">Presentation by Dr. Rafael Terra<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Change is real\u2026 and faster than ever before.<\/h2>\n<p>Baethgen was adamant from the start: \u201c<strong>The climate has always changed, yes, but never at this speed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>It showed how global temperatures and CO\u2082 levels have reached values unheard of in the last 800,000 years\u2026 and they did so <strong>in barely a century.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This speed, he explained, is the main evidence that <strong>this is not a natural cycle<\/strong>, but a phenomenon driven by human activity.<\/p>\n<h2>The core of the problem: fossil fuels<\/h2>\n<p>Much of his presentation focused on <strong>dismantling false equivalencies<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the public debate often focused on livestock, Baethgen stressed that <strong>the main source of global emissions is fossil fuels<\/strong>, which account for about 75% of the total.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11777\" src=\"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-el-problema-de-los-combustibles-fosiles.jpg\" alt=\"climate-change-the-fossil-fuels-problem\" width=\"1230\" height=\"630\" srcset=\"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-el-problema-de-los-combustibles-fosiles.jpg 1230w, https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-el-problema-de-los-combustibles-fosiles-1024x524.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-el-problema-de-los-combustibles-fosiles-768x393.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1230px) 100vw, 1230px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u201cMethane leaks from coal mines, oil wells and natural gas wells <strong>emit more than all the world\u2019s livestock<\/strong>,\u201d he explained, adding:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s good to improve what we do in agriculture, but <strong>let\u2019s not lose sight of where the real problem is<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Uncertainty and bad science<\/h2>\n<p>Another substantial part of the conference was devoted to criticizing the irresponsible use of climate models.<\/p>\n<p>Baethgen questioned those who make detailed projections of climate or 80-year agricultural yields without <strong>clarifying the margins of error<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s not only <strong>scientifically incorrect<\/strong>; it\u2019s also dangerous, because decisions are made with misleading information,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, he <strong>proposed a more realistic approach<\/strong>: use the models as general guidelines, and work with the climate data available today to <strong>design adaptation strategies<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>Extreme events: the most concrete threat<\/h2>\n<p>According to Baethgen, climate change <strong>is already present in Uruguay<\/strong>, and not so much in the form of linear trends, but <strong>as a greater frequency of extreme events<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>He cited as an example the <strong>increased variability in summer rainfall<\/strong>, which today can go from historical deficits to excesses in a very short time.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11780\" src=\"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-eventos-extremos-de-clima.jpg\" alt=\"Extreme events: the most concrete threat\" width=\"1230\" height=\"630\" srcset=\"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-eventos-extremos-de-clima.jpg 1230w, https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-eventos-extremos-de-clima-1024x524.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-eventos-extremos-de-clima-768x393.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1230px) 100vw, 1230px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cThe biggest threat from climate change is the intensification of extremes, not the average,\u201d he said.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>And he proposed prioritizing adaptation to this new reality, rather than waiting for future certainties.<\/p>\n<h2>Agribusiness can be part of the solution<\/h2>\n<p>Despite the warnings, the message was not apocalyptic. <strong>Baethgen also spoke of opportunities<\/strong>. <\/p>\n<p>Among them is the sequestration of carbon in soils through sustainable practices, which <strong>could better position Uruguay in international markets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not a permanent solution, but it buys us time. And if done right, it <strong>can be a competitive advantage<\/strong>,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<h2>Rafael Terra\u2019s comments<\/h2>\n<p>After the main presentation, Dr. Rafael Terra offered <strong>a complementary view<\/strong> from the academic climatology.<\/p>\n<p>He agreed with Baethgen on the urgency of adapting to the current climate and on the rigorous use of models.<\/p>\n<p>He also stressed <strong>the importance of working with time and space scales appropriate<\/strong>to real decision making.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11783\" src=\"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-rafael-terra.jpg\" alt=\"Rafael Terra's comments\" width=\"1230\" height=\"630\" srcset=\"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-rafael-terra.jpg 1230w, https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-rafael-terra-1024x524.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/cambio-climatico-rafael-terra-768x393.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1230px) 100vw, 1230px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Terra also remarked that, although there is uncertainty, it <strong>is not an excuse for inaction<\/strong>: \u201cNot knowing everything does not mean not knowing anything. We must use what we know to <strong>act prudently<\/strong>, but also firmly\u201d. <\/p>\n<h2>Exchange with the public<\/h2>\n<p>The conference closed with a series of questions from the audience, moderated by Mario Allegri.<\/p>\n<p>Topics discussed included:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The <strong>lack of specific public policies<\/strong> for climate adaptation.<\/li>\n<li>The role of multiple indicators in defining sustainability.<\/li>\n<li>And <strong>the challenges of communicating scientific information<\/strong> without falling into misleading simplifications.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Baethgen was clear in his final answer: \u201c<strong>Science has to be at the service of society<\/strong>. And for that, we have to communicate better, but without losing depth\u201d. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On May 27, the National Academy of Engineering of Uruguay (ANIU) inaugurated its series of talks on climate change with a virtual conference given by Dr. Walter E. Baethgen. Dr. Walter E. Baethgena senior researcher at the Columbia Climate School and acting director of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) in New [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":11776,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[104,80],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2025-en","category-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11787\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/2022.aniu.org.uy\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}